Dominating tariffs, commerce and visas to negotiations ncvrs.com

When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits Washington and later meets President Donald Trump on Thursday, there will be warm hugs and shared laughs. But it won’t be everything.

Over the years, Trump and Modi have developed a strong personal relationship, featured on outstanding meetings and joint actions. According to the White House, this time a joint press conference will be held.

Since their first encounter in Washington 2017, their bond has increased through other events, including joint performances in Houston and Ahmedabad. Chemistry stems from shared worldviews and politics and mutual strategic focus on the fight against China, which also confirmed the broader partnership of the US-India.

Not surprisingly, Trump often criticized India, but never criticized Modi.

And so, during the modi visitThe two leaders are likely to spend time mapping the next steps in the United States-India Strategic Partnership, which is in the right place.

Modi is said to meet several members of Trump’s cabinet, as well as US business leaders and members of the Indian-American community.

You can also meet SpaceX and Tesla boss Elon Musk. Modi, who is happy to increase India’s growing electric vehicles, would be happy to have opened a Tesla factory in Musk in India.

And yet, the kindness of Trump-Modi and the strategic partnership can cover up the reality of sober: while visiting Modi, the relationship side of the relationship is a sharp relief with individual leaders, especially Trump and many claims.

Delhi knows Trump well. Many of the Modi Cabinet ministers also served in the previous cycle, which overlapped some of the first Trump administration. This cognition has been seen since Trump’s inauguration last month: Delhi publicly candidate It is willing to reduce tariffs, reclaim non -documented Indian immigrants and buy US oil.

You already have lowered Some tariffs and returned 104 unscheduled Indian with the first plane arriving India last week. The purpose of these preventive steps is to prevent Trump from formulating specific needs with India and reducing the likelihood of tension with the new Trump administration.

Nevertheless, Trump may ask MODI to put additional tariffs to reduce the lack of trade between the US goods and services that has an India approached $ 46 billion (37.10 billion pounds) in recent years.

On Wednesday night, the White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed that Trump is planning to proclaim the mutual tariffs of other countries before meeting MODI.

However, the obstacle can be an opportunity: Modi may call Trump to start bilateral negotiations on an economic partnership agreement aimed at reducing the tariffs on both sides.

In recent years Delhi showed increasing willingness to continue Commercial transactions– The Trump administration is likely to be more willing to talk partner than the Biden administration, which has introduced difficult conditions of environmental and work for new trade agreements.

Trump can also ask Modi to take back the more documented Indians. Given that some estimates put the number more than 700,000 – The third largest such group in the United States – this is a difficult and delicate question for Delhi to navigate.

Last week’s Indian Foreign Minister s Jaishankar told the parliament The government cooperated with the United States to ensure that Indian citizens were not abused while deported after reporting that they were handcuffed.

Trump can also call MODI to buy more American oils.

In 2021 there was an India a most important destination To American oil exports, but the Ukrainian Russian invasion brought significant changes in global oil markets and made Delhi to raise the import of cheap oil from a close partner of Russia. The price point determines how much oil is willing to buy from the United States.

Modi can also go with his own energy: invest in Indian nuclear energy. Delhi is that modifying Nuclear Responsibility Law and announced a new nuclear energy mission to try to see international interest in fuel.

India aims to fulfill half of its energy requirement by 2030. He invites Trump to invest in nuclear fuels for a potential happy medium: cleaner than fossil fuels, but far from solar energy and wind energy, which may not conflict with Trump administration as an attractive investment.

Technology is likely to be discussed.

It was a rapidly growing place for bilateral relationships in the Biden era due to the 2022 implementation Initiative of critical and emerging technologies (ICET), which considers both parties as a new cornerstone of strategic partnership. ICET should be directly supervised by the two national security advisors -to avoid bureaucracy -which means that they must be invested in person.

Modi is likely to ensure that Trump and Mike Waltz’s national security consultant will continue to be committed. Because Washington focuses on China to offset India into a majority of tech global supply chains, it is likely to be done.

Can also create a modi orbit on the technological cooperation front to maintain Trump H-1B visa system– These visas for highly trained foreign workers that some have been highly criticized Influential Trump supportersHe was awarded a large number of Indian technology in the United States.

Other countries may also arise during Modi’s Washington conversations. Iran was able to weave a particularly large loom.

Delhi cooperates with Tehran to develop a harbor in Chabahar City -a wider Indian strategy is part of the Central -Asia and Afghanistan. But last week the US administration released the presidency memorandum Outline Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran, suggesting that it eliminates the relief of sanctions for persons engaged in commercial activities in Chabahar. Modi can ask for clarity what this means to Delhi.

Trump can also assess Modi’s position on a large foreign policy priority: the end of the Ukrainian and Gaza wars.

Delhi is of great interest to wars. Modi’s position on the Ukrainian war – calling for the end of the conflict without Putin or Russia – reflects Trump’s position.

India’s special relationship with Russia and Israel can cause Trump to find out if Modi wants to play a third-party mediator. Modi would probably only be convenient if the parties were receptive to external mediation.

But this week, despite some potentially fine discussions, both leaders want to maintain positive sounds.

In this regard, the Indian-Pacific Quad is just what the doctor ordered.

Trump strongly supports this group consisting of the United States, India, Japan and Australia and focuses on fighting Beijing.

In his first cycle, Trump raised Quad’s annual meetings to the level of the Foreign Minister, and Biden further raised them to the leaders’ level.

India is scheduled to be this year’s four -fourth meeting and Modi can invite Trump to Delhi to participate.

Allegedly Trump not a big fan From international travel, but India is a journey you are likely to be happy to do – deepens her personal relationship with MODI and promotes a multifaceted bilateral partnership that is well above the transactionality that holds the day in Washington this week.

Michael Kugelman is the director of the Wilson Center in Washington

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