South African-Trump Land Row can move from support to trade ncvrs.com

It seems that SouthAfrica is at the intersection of resin and declining relationships with the United States after President Donald Trump has made a disputed decision to reduce the country’s financial support last week.

According to Trump, Southfrica continues so -called “unfair and immoral practices” against the Africanian white minority community and, in December 2023, launched a genocide against Israel against the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

Moving shock waves in South Africa, and experts feared that they could use this opportunity to make preference on the US market through a special American-African trading program of Africa Africa and Opportunity Act (AGOA).

The two countries have generally had a friendly relationship since the end of the White Information Rule in 1994, when the anti-Apartheid icon and the Nobel Peace Prize winner Nelson Mandela were elected the first black president of South Africa.

Although the United States has taken another 14 years to remove Mandela from the “terrorist watch list” to overcome the racist system of Apartheid, introduced by then-African-African rulers in 1948.

The most recent tension was accelerated a few days after Trump’s inauguration last month, when South -Africa president Cyril Ramaphosa Signed into the law of expropriation into the lawwhich allows the government to confiscate the Earth without compensation under certain circumstances.

Trump’s reply came last week When you threatened to reduce future funding What was called “terrible things, terrible things” was done by the country’s leadership.

The President of the United States continued to accuse South Africa, in fact, without a fundamental basis, to “confiscate the Earth” and “do things that are much worse.”

He doubled with the fierce reflection of the South -Ffrician government and signed the execution command last Friday.

This is nearly $ 440 million (353 million pounds) -a grant supposedly awarded in 2023 -although the South African Embassy then stated that Pepfar financing is an American program that is contrary to HIV’s global spread, does not affectAdded the warning that “not all Pepfar activities continue”.

South Africa is one of Pepfar’s largest beneficiaries, which contributes about 17% to HIV/AIDS program, with about 5.5 million people receive antidrovirals.

In his enforcement order, Trump also accused South Africa of “shocking the rights of his citizens” and took on “aggressive positions” against the United States and his ally against Israel in the ICJ case.

In addition to freezing aid, Trump offered to help refugees of the African community who settled in the United States in the US.

His position is the conservative Africaner lobby groups, including Afriforum and solidarity, which want the government to overturn what “racial laws”, such as affirmative action and black economic authority.

This is the close consultant of Trump, Elon Musk, with a billionaire opinion of a technology billionaire born in South Africa. He asked X why Ramaphosa was “openly racist ownership laws”.

This is not the first time that South -Fricika’s land reform policy called Trump’s anger.

In 2018, during your first presidency, The South African authorities were accused of “farmers’ murder of farmers” And he asked his then secretary of state to investigate the government’s question “the land of the land from white farmers.”

While Trump’s comments were retreating at the time, Dr. Oscar van Heerden, a political analyst at the University of Johannesburg, told the BBC that “such a radical measure had never been made to sign the enforcement order.”

Their relationship is now uncertain – both countries are considering the next step.

In the field of commerce, Donald Mackay, CEO of commercial advisory firm XA Global Trade Advisors, based in Johannesburg, said that while the United States was one of South Africa’s biggest partners, it was not the “closest trading partner”.

South Furika exports various minerals to the United States, including platinum, iron and manganese.

This is one of the largest Agoa exporters who generate revenue of about $ 2.7 billion in 2023, mainly from the sale of vehicles, jewelry and metals.

“Over the years, this relationship has been waxed and decreasing. It has never been terribly strong (since the white rule has ended in South Africa), however, I think it has never been as deteriorated as recent years. And I do not think This is the fault of South, “Mr Mackay told the BBC.

But he admitted that South Ffrika has done a lot to irritate the United States in recent years.

“These irritations accumulate and under President Trump … This is the opportunity to put South Africa in place.”

Dr. Van Heerden has changed the change in dynamics in part by “Global Shifts” and “New Competition against the United States” from China, India and Brazil lovers.

While experts talked about the benefits of Agoa, which was reviewed later in the year, they agreed that the effect was not as significant as fear.

Agea was introduced in 2000 And for more than 1,800 products, the eligible sub -Saharan African countries provide duty -free access to the United States.

Mr Mackay said it would be surprised if South -Fricika continued this preference agreement after the review.

“My instinct is that whatever the reason Trump is nervous with South Africa, it would be the simplest mechanism to punish South -Fricika.”

Dr. Van Heerden added that even if the agreement is not renewed or excluded South Africa, businesses that are currently receiving will suffer short-term losses, but will be able to return in a few years.

He said that President Ramaphosa’s government is currently choosing a diplomatic path – although the lack of interest in the Trump administration, lack of interest in diplomacy, drastically reduced the chances of success.

This was probably not helped by Foreign Minister Ronald Lamola Blunt on Wednesday to move Trump, saying that “there is no chance” that South Ffrika will withdraw his case against Israel on the ICJ.

“Standing with our principles sometimes have consequences, but we remain determined to be important to the world and the rule of law.” Lamola told Financial TimesOr

South -Ffrika accused Israel of committing genocide against the Palestinians in Gaza, denied by Israel’s claim.

Meanwhile, Ramaphosa, as president of the G20, announced that he would send a delegation from all over the world to clarify the domestic and foreign policy of South – as Washington is a key stop.

South -Ffrika assumed a G20 presidency in December last year, a group of countries that encounter global economic and political issues, which sees an opportunity to strengthen the international situation.

During the break to South Africa, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that he would not attend the G20 meeting of foreign ministers in Johannesburg next week.

“My job is to promote America’s national interests, not taxpayers’ money or American anti-American anti-American,” he said.

South -Fricika is part of the Bricics and the association of developing developing countries, including Brazil, Russia, India and China, which attempts to attack the political and economic power of the richer nations of North America and Western Europe.

Mr. Mackay believes that it will be difficult for SouthAfrica and other nations to navigate under the “most appropriate politician in the world”, suggesting that BRICS has to be considered an alternative partner.

But SouthAfrica is significantly significantly one of the European Union (EU), one of its largest trading partners, has confirmed the country’s support.

António Costa, President of the European Council, which defines the general political management and priorities of the EU – Giving up on X on Monday that he talked to Ramaphosa by phone to highlight the EU’s commitment to deepen relations with South Africa. “

If the charming offender of South Furic fails, Mr Van Heerden recommends that the government decide to “negotiate” hard and use the minerals transported to the United States as “negotiating chips”.

But he warns: “South Furh needs to be very careful about how to play this chess game (where) the opening gambit was already made by President Trump and Elon Musk.”